Dr. Z's Mock First
Round
Posted: Wed April 15, 1998
by Paul
Zimmerman
Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z drafted this expanded version
of his annual first-round projections, exclusively for
CNN/SI.
1. COLTS—Peyton Manning, QB,
Tennessee
Just before writing I had a final conversation with Colts
president Jim Irsay, who, for some reason, has been playing
it cute as to which QB it'll be, Manning or Ryan Leaf. Sez
I: "OK, Jimmy, you've been captured by terrorists,
and they're holding a
gun to your head, and if you don't come up with a name, bang,
you're dead! So what's it gonna
be?"
"Haven't decided yet," he said. Well, we can't
kill him, because that's not the way to find out, but
before I could get into my friendly persuasion mode he
launched into a historical analysis about how they were
faced with the same situation in 1992.
No. 1 pick on the board, only this time it was between a
pair of defensive linemen: Steve Emtman, who represented
maximum achievement and effort, i.e. Manning, vs. Sean
Gilbert, who represented untapped potential, à la
Leaf. And they took Emtman.
"Yeah, great, one guy can't walk now and the other
one's getting messages from God about how he shouldn't sign
a contract," I said, too dim-witted to realize that
Irsay was basically telling me what I wanted to know.
Well, how do you deal with someone
this stupid? So he tried another tack. "Who have you
given us?" Irsay said. "Manning," I said.
"Do it now versus do it later."
"You'll be OK," he said. And there you have it,
folks, straight from the Colt's
mouth.
2. CHARGERS (from Cardinals)—Ryan Leaf, QB, Washington
State
Made some questionable decisions in the Rose Bowl. Showed
up overweight at 261 for the combine workouts. Said he
wanted to be a Charger, which would mean a couple of
million less in the old contract department. Does all this
bother Bobby Beathard? Not
at all. This big strong gunner is the guy he's wanted all
along.
3. CARDINALS (from Chargers)—Andre Wadsworth, DE, Florida
State
Now the trade-up talk starts, not necessarily for
Wadsworth, clearly the best defensive lineman on the board,
but for him or Charles Woodson or Curtis Enis. Rumors
abound, and will right up to draft day. The price is
high—two No. 1's and two decent
vets. Too high, everyone
says.
4. RAIDERS—Charles Woodson, CB,
Michigan
Such madness. The Raiders secondary couldn't cover anybody
last year and this guy is the best thing since Deion. But
there are serious rumors that Al Davis wants to trade out
of the pick. How can this be? Money problems, we hear.
Woodson's agents are
the Poston brothers, the guys who held out Orlando Pace,
last year's top choice, until week three of the preseason.
Puh-leeze! If the Raiders really trade the pick, their
fans will revolt (they're revolting
anyway).
5. RAMS (projected trade with Bears)—Curtis Enis, RB,
Penn
State
This is the Enis position, and last time I talked to the
Bears, four teams, aside from St. Louis, were serious about
moving up to get
him: the Jaguars and Patriots, each with two No. 1's; the
Panthers, whom I can't take seriously because I think
they'll
eventually give Washington their top choice for Gilbert;
and a fourth team the guy couldn't remember. I've gone
with the Rams because neither the Jags nor Pats want to
part with their second No. 1 and St. Louis is in the
highest position on the
board—and probably will be next year, too, when the rest of the
deal kicks
in.
6. BEARS (from Rams)—Keith Brooking, LB, Georgia
Tech
Some have put wideout Randy Moss in this spot. Doesn't
make sense. When you're in the same division as Barry
Sanders, Robert Smith and Warrick Dunn, you'd better have a
linebacker who can
run.
7. SAINTS—Tra Thomas, OT, Florida
State
Again, Moss's name comes up. Mike Ditka might like him,
but their player personnel guy, Billy Kuharich, favors a
lineman—either Thomas or San Diego State's Kyle
Turley.
8. COWBOYS—Grant Wistrom, DE,
Nebraska
I placed a call to Dallas's chief drafter, Larry Lacewell.
Jerry Jones, the owner, shortstopped the call and got on
the phone. We talked about hogs and taters and one thing
and another, and then we finally got down to the draft and
he said offense
makes more sense, because their defense was good last year and
their offense was, uh, not so good, uh. Moss? Hmmm, very
interesting idea, the owner said. Yeah, right, a guy with
a police blotter, just when the Cowboys are telling the
world how they're
cleaning up their act. And privately other scouts have told me
that their defensive staff visited two schools in
force—Nebraska, for Wistrom, and North Carolina, for DE
Greg Ellis. I gave them
Wistrom.
9. JAGUARS (from Bills)—Vonnie Holliday, DT, North
Carolina
Their DTs went down in a heap last year. But the Jags also
feel that they're one running back away from the Super
Bowl. As long as they don't trade up, I figure they get
the DT here and a quality runner farther
down.
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Starks is the fastest of the top cornerback prospects.
(Bob Rosato)
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10. RAVENS—Duane Starks, CB, Miami
(Fla.)
A possible trade for Panther CB Tyrone Poole might change
this. Then they'd trade down for a receiver, Kevin Dyson
of Utah, or an offensive lineman, Alan Faneca of Louisiana
State, depending on how far they
drop.
11. EAGLES—Kyle Turley, OT, San Diego
State
Tossup between Turley and Florida State's 349-pound Tra
Thomas. Simple subtraction leads me to Turley, since I've
already given Thomas
away.
12. FALCONS—Shaun Williams, S,
UCLA
The conversation started with offensive linemen. Then it
turned to cornerbacks. But Williams' name kept coming up,
just in passing, mind you, but I've just got a hunch here.
If this comes true, he'll go strong side; Packers import
Eugene Robinson
will stay at
free.
13. BENGALS—Brian Simmons, LB, North
Carolina
Defense all the way, on both picks, they told me, and
Simmons is Cincinnati's second-rated LB on the board,
behind
Brooking.
14. REDSKINS (projected trade with Panthers)—Flozell
Adams, OT, Michigan
State
The Panthers signed Gilbert to a $46.9 contract before the
trade details were worked out, and this tells me it'll come
about. The Skins want a No. 1, plus. The Panthers are
offering a No. 2, plus. Washington is prepared to stay
firm, even if it means
eating Gilbert's $2.9 million in cap money.
15. SEAHAWKS—Randy Moss, WR,
Marshall
Finally a place for this 6'4", 200-pounder, who ran a
4.31 40 in a private workout. Dennis Erickson fancies the
passing game and he feels that this gifted athlete could
really light it up for him. Personally, I'm not so sure.
Actually, I'm really
sure—that Moss will be a bust—but I'm too polite to say it.
I have yet to see him do one tough thing on the
field.
16. OILERS—Takeo Spikes, LB,
Auburn
Defense, says Jeff Fisher, and Spikes is at the top of the
board at this point, except for DE Ellis, and the Oilers
say they're in good shape on the line. They like Brian
Kelly, the USC cornerback, but if they switch gears they
could go for WR
Dyson.
17. BENGALS (from Redskins)—Greg Ellis, DE, North
Carolina
Dick LeBeau's 3-4 was a disaster last year. Ellis, with
speed on the flank, combined with Simmons at No. 13, could
make it
work.
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Edwards has explosive ability, but injuries are a question mark.
(Bill Frakes)
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18. PATRIOTS (from Jets)—Robert Edwards, RB,
Georgia
This assumes that they don't get Enis in the trade-up.
Florida's Fred Taylor is rated higher, but I've got the
Dolphins trading up for him. Problem is, I'm not sure to
what
spot.
19. DOLPHINS—Fred Taylor, RB,
Florida
Jimmy Johnson loves those Florida runners (see Emmitt
Smith). This guy could really make an impact on Jimmy's
much-discussed running game—which, so far, has been all
talk.
20. LIONS—Anthony Simmons, LB,
Clemson
Reggie Brown was really coming on as a weak-side LB when he
suffered that tragic, career-ending injury against the
Jets. This guy's no Brown, not yet, but the Lions must
address the
position.
21. VIKINGS—Corey Chavous, CB,
Vanderbilt
A personal favorite of Dennis Green, who lost his right
corner, Dewayne Washington, to free agency. He lined them
all up for me, and Chavous was No. 1 of what's
left.
22. PATRIOTS—Germane Crowell, WR,
Virginia
They want a bigger, possession guy to complement Terry
Glenn. Could be Dyson, but Bucs coach Tony Dungy loves him
so much that I have him trading up, or figuring out some
way to get
him.
23. BUCCANEERS—Kevin Dyson, WR,
Utah
Seems we just heard that name someplace. Trent Dilfer is
on the verge of becoming a serious NFL quarterback. He's
one receiver
away.
24. GIANTS—Mo Collins, OT,
Florida
Three positions need addressing (and this all goes under
the heading of building a strong running game to protect
their young QB, Danny
Kanell): LG, C, RB. Could be a runner here, or LSU guard
Faneca.
25. JAGUARS—Robert Holcombe, RB,
Illinois
I love this hard-working, straight-ahead banger who gained
1,253 yards for an 0-11 team. So does Tom
Coughlin.
26. STEELERS—Leonard Little, DE/LB,
Tennessee
Greg Lloyd, coming back from an injury, played sporadically
last year and didn't do much. Is this the end of the line?
That's the Steelers' main concern, an edge-rusher on the
right side, and they're still toying with the idea of
Stanford's 267-pound
Kailee Wong, who can
run.
27. CHIEFS—Terry Fair, CB,
Tennessee
They're not happy with the left offensive tackle situation,
so they could make a run at Collins or Auburn's Victor
Riley, but they're also looking at corners, since James
Hasty will be 33 and Dale Carter's contract is up after
this
year.
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Faneca is without question the top guard prospect, with tremendous drive-blocking ability.
(Patrick-Murphy Racey)
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28. 49ERS—Victor Riley, OT,
Auburn
It'll take a trade-up to get him, but the Niners are
notorious draft-day
movers.
29. PACKERS—Brian Kelly, CB,
USC
"We're still looking at his speed," says GM Ron
Wolf. O.K., you look and I'll draft him for you. Craig
Newsome is coming back from injury, Doug Evans has departed
via free
agency.
30. BRONCOS—Alan Faneca, OG,
LSU
Better drive blocker than pass
blocker is his rap sheet, but that's what the Broncos like. Brian
Habib's free-agency departure opens up a spot, and Faneca
can really knock 'em off the
line.
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