In August, Optimism
Rules
Posted: Tues August 4,
1998
Be sure to check out Peter King's Postcards from Camp, as
he makes his way around the league—and the country.
And don't forget to submit your season-opening questions
for Peter's next Mailbag, coming in two
weeks.
One of the great parts of my job is getting propagandized
in the preseason. I go to Carolina last week, and all of a
sudden
Kerry
Collins is a West Coast offense quarterback. I go to Atlanta, and
Chris
Chandler is durable. I go to Dallas and
Emmitt
Smith's on course for a return to his 1995
form.
Everybody's optimistic in August. But
here are the five sobering things I've
seen at my first nine camps of the
summer:
1.
Greg
Lloyd was limping noticeably in Spartanburg, S.C., at Panthers
camp. Trying to rebound from a serious staph infection in
his
ankle, Lloyd doesn't look like the player he was even a
year ago, when the Steelers reduced his
role.
2.
Jimmy
Johnson might want to thinkabout running a less macho camp. Real
games are five weeks away, and already the physical
practices have dinged Miami's top two draft
picks—running back
John
Avery and cornerback
Patrick
Surtain.
3. I have no idea who's going to rush the passer for
the
Cowboys. Nor do
they.
4.
The
Falcons' apathetic fans were so excited about the drafting of
Georgia Tech linebacker
Keith
Brooking in the first round that 30 season tickets were sold the
next
day after the
draft.
5.
If
Bill
Parcells were going by what he sees, as he is fond of saying, then
based on the two hours of Jets practice I saw he'd be
playing
Vinny
Testaverde over
Glenn
Foley. It's not just those two hours, from what I hear. Foley
has looked
mediocre.
Now to your
questions:
Most people are picking the Giants to miss the playoffs
this year, mostly because of their tough schedule. But
aren't they a better team than they were last
year?
—Matt A., Jericho,
N.Y.
No question they've upgraded at safety, with
Shaun
Williams (who's better than either
Sam
Garnes or
Tito
Wooten) and with
Joe
Jurevicius,
the big receiver that Jim Fassel wanted. But the Giants
went a combined 5-0-1 last year against Dallas (now with
some discipline), Washington (now with two defensive
tackles) and Arizona (with great bookened pass-rushers if
Andre Wadsworth ever signs). New York won't go 5-0-1
against those three teams this year, I'll guarantee you.
And last year the Giants opened against Philly,
Jacksonville, Baltimore, St. Louis and New Orleans. This
year they open with the following five games: Washington,
at Oakland, Dallas, at San Diego, at Tampa. Matt, the
Giants will have to be 20 percent better than a year ago to
make the playoffs, and from the looks of their first
scrimmage at camp (one offensive penetration into the red
zone out of 14 tries) it's going to be very, very tough for
them.
What non-first-round draft pick do you think will step up
and make an impact this
season?
—Jordan Kirby, London,
Ky.
My choice would be one of two second-rounders: Miami
cornerback
Patrick
Surtain, who Jimmy Johnson calls the best pick he's made in Miami,
or St. Louis running back
Robert
Holcombe, who I think will gain 1,200
yards.
Why are the Redskins so intent on replacing tight end Jamie
Asher with rookie Stephen
Alexander? Asher has been a consistent performer in the
time he's been with Washington. Is there something else going
on?
—Jim Nolan, Helena,
Mont.
I saw Alexander in mini-camp in June, and I think he's one
of the most sure-handed big receivers I've ever seen. He's
bound to have a better per-catch average than Asher's 9.7
of 1997. Asher has been a steady, reliable guy, but who
does he
scare?
Which rookie running back will have the biggest impact:
Jacksonville's Fred Taylor, St. Louis' Robert Holcombe,
Chicago's Curtis Enis or New England's Robert
Edwards?
—J. Kuriakose,
Montreal
In order, the best rookie runners in the league this year,
with yardage totals, will
be:
1. Holcombe
(1,200)
2. Enis
(1,150)
3. Taylor
(1,000)
4. Edwards
(800)
All I hear from Jimmy Johnson is that he wants the Dolphins
to run, run, run. I believe I heard him say in an interview
at the end of last season that it was his fault the team
didn't do well because he didn't put the ball in Dan
Marino's hands enough. So why the same philosophy this
year?
—David Salmanson, Providence,
R.I.
I'm not quite sure what you mean, David. Johnson didn't
establish the run to his satisfaction in either of the last
two years, so he's bashing himself over the head now for
not doing so. "You don't hear me admit I was wrong
very often," Johnson told me last week when I visited
Dolphins camp, "but I was wrong to not change the
offense when I first got here. I should have put the
emphasis on the run from the first day." This is the
first year a Miami line will ever have five 300-pound
starters, and I think they'll try to mash it all year. I
asked Johnson what would happen if they couldn't run early.
Would they abandon the run and go back to a throwing game?
"It'll be too late then," he said. "We're
committed to it, and we won't turn
back."
It seems that the most potent defensive lines have at least
two bonafide superstars. Why don't the Vikings go out and
get a soulmate for John
Randle? Granted, offensive tackle Todd Steussie is a very good,
young player, but I think the money doled out to re-sign
him would have been better spent on Dana
Stubblefield.
—Erryl Copleand, Crossfield,
Alberta
You could make that argument, Erryl. But I would counter by
saying this: Why do you think
Robert
Smith had a gaudy 5.5-yard rushing average last year? And why do
you think the Minnesota quarterbacks were sacked just 2.1
times per game? Steussie is more vital to what they do than
Stubblefield would have been. Also, you have to remember
that the year before last Stubblefield gained just half a
sack, mostly playing hurt. There's no guarantee he'd
duplicate his starry '97 in
Minnesota.
Because of the speed of new-age defensive players, do you
see the trend at quarterback leaning toward more athletic
types like Steve Young and Kordell
Stewart?
—Curtis C., Baltimore,
Md.
The trend is to hurry players into the position, and to
hurry quick athletic types into the position. So the most
important attributes for a young quarterback now, in order,
are:
1. Arm
strength.
2. Intelligence under
fire.
3. Good offensive
scheme.
4. Athleticism to avoid the rush and make plays happen on the
run.
5. Patient, smart coaches who have time to fail. (By that I
mean they don't have an owner thinking about a coaching
change after just one bad
year.)
6. Receivers who can separate from good cover
corners.
7. The personality to brush aside all the immense
distractions that fall on a starting quarterback's
shoulders in today's NFL. (This is
important.)
8. A running back or running game that gives the quarterback
lots of
second-and-fives.
9. A left tackle who keeps the wonderful athletes at
pass-rushing defensive end and weakside outside linebacker
off the quarterback's
back.
10. Fire to
compete.
What are the chances of the Cowboys signing Alvin Harper,
now that New Orleans has cut him? I realize that Dallas is
heavy with receivers but with Chan Gailey running three-,
four- and five- receiver sets, they need someone with
experience to help Michael Irvin and Ernie
Mills.
—Joe McGrath, New Braunfels,
Texas
"My feeling is," Jerry Jones told me last week,
"if Norv Turner couldn't get it out of Alvin in
Washington, how are we going to get it out of him in
Dallas." Well said. Joe, the guy loves being a
football player. He doesn't love football. Know what I
mean?
I was wondering what the NFL schedule makers are planning
for next year when an odd number of teams will be
competing. Will having a bye in the first or last week of
the season be seen as a detriment or an advantage? Is there
a chance that the league will go back to an 18-week season
with two bye
weeks?
—Erich Sumi, San Francisco,
Calif.
My guess is that the NFL's 32nd team will be named early in
2000, and the Los Angeles or Houston-based franchise (L.A.
is the favorite, by a lot) will begin play around 2003. The
NFL will fidget with the bye system and awkwardly schedule
at least one team off every week. I'm not sure how they'll
plan the season out, but they don't have to play it over 18
weeks.
How long will it take for Doug Flutie to become frustrated
as a backup for the
Bills?
—Terry,
Toronto
If
Doug
Flutie earns the backup job over
Todd
Collins and
Alex Van
Pelt, he would certainly stay in Buffalo and at some point have
a chance to play this year for the Bills. There's no doubt
about that. I think the only way he'd give up the NFL dream
is if he wasn't the second or third quarterback. If he gets
cut, he hasn't burned his bridges back in Canada. He's a
gym rat. I'd think it's logical to assume he'd try to
finish the year up
there.
Click here to submit a question to Peter
King.
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